betting predictions
It was a pretty chalky week in Week 4 of the season, with many of the favorites taking care of business. Straight up, it was split down the middle with home teams going 8-8 straight up.
As for the spread, favorites outright went 10-5-1 against the spread. That includes going 5-2 as a home favorite and 5-3-1 as a road team favorite. Leading the way were two of the biggest favorites of the week in the San Francisco 49ers who covered 14.5 points against the Arizona Cardinals and the Dallas Cowboys who covered a 6-point spread against the New England Patriots.
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Looking at the biggest public wins, it began on Sunday morning when the Jacksonville Jaguars took on 57% of bets and 73% of the betting handle to cover a 3-point spread to which they ended up covering with a 23-7 final score.
Both the 49ers and Cowboys who were two of the biggest favorites also made bettors happy. Dallas was taking 67% of the bets and 72% of their money to cover the 6 points. San Francisco saw some serious action as well with 72% of bets and a league-leading 83% of the handle.
Looking ahead to Week 5 and what you should keep in mind. Some of the most notable public action that has come up in the early lines, the Washington Commanders are seeing 75% of bets and money to cover -6.5 against the Chicago Bears, the Buffalo Bills are seeing a massive 95% of money being bet on them to cover just 5.5 points against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Leading the league in action though are the Miami Dolphins against the New York Giants who are taking 89% of bets and 98% of money.
- San Francisco 49ers Total: o45 +110 Spread: -3.5 -110
- Dallas Cowboys Total: u45 +110 Spread: +3.5 -110
- Chicago Bears: o44.5 +110 Spread: +5.5 -110
- Buffalo Bills: u48.5 +110 Spread: -5.5 -110
- Miami Dolphins: u48.5 +110 Spread: -11 -110
As far as trends go, there are only two undefeated teams remaining in the league at 4-0 and they are the 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles and both of which are favored by 4 points to win in Week 5.
On the spread, only one team hasn’t taken a loss against the spread and that is the Los Angeles Rams who are 3-0-1. Behind them, there are 11 teams who sit at 3-1 against the spread:
Dolphins
Seahawks
Bills
49ers
Titans
Ravens
Buccaneers
Packers
Lions
Cardinals
Cowboys
As for the worst teams against the spread, the New York Giants are an abysmal 0-4 ATS and are failing to cover by a league-worst -16.3 points. They are the only team that has failed to push or win ATS.
These guys were atop the receiving yards leaderboards in Week 4 🔥 pic.twitter.com/8GjazIjC81
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 3, 2023
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| Title: NFL Week 4 Betting Recap
| Author: Sam Profeta
| Date: October 04th, 2023
